The wave of polling coming out of New Hampshire is painting a dire picture for a Democrat party that hopes to nominate anyone other than a septuagenarian Joe Stalin fanboi with a heart condition.
Back in December and early January, Elizabeth Warren was running at least three points ahead of the field. But since President Trump’s impeachment hit the US Senate, an amazing thing has happened.
Bernie Sanders has jumped into a clear and commanding lead across the board. This has been accompanied by two other phenomena. Joe Biden has cratered. He’s gone from being a strong second place candidate to a flagging and failing fourth place candidate. Similarly Elizabeth Warren is now either in third or scuffling with Biden for fourth place. Pete “#MayorCheat” Buttigieg is solidly in second.
What does all of this mean?
It means we could see Elizabeth Warren out of the race shortly after the Nevada caucuses. She couldn’t get traction in Iowa and if she had a chance of winning any early state it was New Hampshire.
Joe Biden, likewise, is on life support. He threw the kitchen sink into Iowa and the more Iowans saw of him the less they liked him. His weak fourth place finish there has killed his campaign. Another fourth in New Hampshire and it is hard to see how he’s even in the race by the time his so-called firewall of South Carolina votes. From what we’ve seen so far, I wouldn’t count on him doing all that well there, either.
Bernie Sanders is set to sweep the first three contests. I’m not sure what that gets him because the Democrat establishment is not going to let him win. Coming out of South Carolina and heading into Super Tuesday may see the Democrat field winnowed down to Sanders, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg. If that is the case, the Democrat establishment will pull out all the stops to pump up Bloomberg because the conventional wisdom is starting to be that only Bloomberg can beat Trump.